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I want to analyse this seat. This seat is a 2016 pick up and a must win for Libs to get back into government. I also want to analyse One Nation chances in seeing whether they can pick up this seat. I believe for ONP to win a seat it usually needs to meet two thresholds
1. Less than 25% Bachelor degree ideally less than 20%
2. Majority English speaking ideally more than 60% the 50-60% is the grey zone.
This seat is quite divided on the first test.
It is actually exactly 25% Bachlor Degree but that makes a steep internal divide. In the Blue Mountains 32.7% have a Bachelor degree or above higher than state and national averages. Howeever, in the Hawkesbury it is only 15.9% far below state and national averages. Despite that Median incomes are actually higher in the Hawkesbury $1980 versus $1756 so the university educated elites as ONP calls them actually earn less. Labor margin in this seat is inflated as Susan Templeman has built a personal vote in Hawkesbury. ONP can certianly appeal in Hawkesbury.
Lets look at ethnicity
Blue Mountains seems to be less diverse than Hawkesbury-90.1% english speaking versus 88.4% and a lower indigenous percent 2.7% versus 4.8%
Ben actually did a great analysis on this seat after 2019 election to look at the polarisation of this seat. link below. This seat has turned overall Left as Blue Mountains as moved from a swing/bellwether area to solid left while Hawkesbury has remained the same politically. Tony Abbott actually did better statewide than John Howard ever did. However, even in 2013 TA underperfomed JH 1996 and 2004 results.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/38846
Nimalan
You might be overthinking it.
I am not sure if there is another seat in the country that has two so distinct halves.
Susan Templeman is a great ‘horse for the course’ as far as Labor in the Blue Mountains are concerned – in the same realm as Ged Kearney, Tanya Plibersek or Albo.
She did a great job as local MP in the Black Summer bushfires and built up and has kept a big personal vote in the Hawkesbury. Her personal vote is definitely suppressing the Green vote in the Blue Mountains.
If Susan Templeman retired and the tide is swinging against the left there could be a four way split where the votes of any minors and any leakage from #4 could determine who wins – who knows #4 could be the winner.
Susan Templeman seems to have a personal vote. Someone like her can withstand the One Nation surge. Her personal vote has held up the Labor vote in Richmond and Windsor. There is also a strong rusted on Greens vote in the Blue Mountains. The Greens might come 3rd at best but most of the preferences will flow to and help Labor.
@Nimalan, I agree that One Nation support correlates with bachelor degree attainment and birthplace or ethnicity. There are some exceptions such as Lismore (the state electorate). They might have low diversity and few migrants but it’s unlikely to flip to One Nation. It is because of the socially progressive and environmentalist demographic.
Blue Mountains has quite an educated population but attracts a lot of people who move for lifestyle or retirement reasons or for specific industries like arts or tourism. People generally don’t move there to chase the big bucks, though some commute from the Lower Blue Mountains to Sydney for work.
@ Redistributed
I agree that Susan Templeman is a popular MP with a significant personal vote and this is a very polarised seat with two distict halves.
@Votante agree with your analysis. I think Blue Mountains incrasingly also have Public servents who do Hybrid working
It’s pretty wild that the 2PP in the Hawkesbury was only 54% for the Liberals. Even in 2007, it was around 60%.
In state politics, the margin in Hawkesbury district just barely fell into the single digits in 2023. The last time that had happened in a general election was the Wranslide of 1978.